Disclaimer: Do not take this too serious, it is just speculation for the fun of it.
I just played around with some numbers, based on the assumption that there are currently about 60 * 10 comments in the official thread, representing 0.5% of the people that pre-ordered. Let’s say then ~ 100,000 pre orders in total. Is that realistic? I dunno. But DJI is telling us nothing, so let’s go on for the hack of it 😉
Here is an assumption about their early production lines:
2 (units per hour per worker) * (20 workers) * 8 (hours) * 5 (days) * 4 (weeks) = 6.400 units per month
Let’s assume they aimed for a 1st market goal of 10.000 units (could have been pre-produced in Aug, September). Then, all of a sudden in September/October: 10 times as much orders, boom!!!
– intermediate status: ~ 25.000 units by end of November
Finally, a production scale-up during November, let’s say by a factor of 5 (i.e. 5 times as much workers, i.e. 100 in total)
5 * 6.400 = ~ 30.000 per month since December
– intermediate status: 55.000 by the end of the year
Now that it became clear that the orders come in massively, monthly increase of the production capacity by a factor of 50 workers
– 100.000 end of January
– 160.000 end of February
I guess we all should be fine till end of February 😉 Of course, these are rather lower bounds of the true numbers, I suppose.
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